Observations on permafrost ground thermal regimes from Antarctica and the Italian Alps, and their relevance to global climate change

Active-layer monitoring and the permafrost thermal regime are key indicators of climate change. The results of 3 years (1997-1999) of active-layer monitoring at one high-mountain site (La Foppa, 46degrees28' 42" N; 10degrees11' 18" E, 2670 m a.s.l.) and at one Antarctic site (Boulder Clay, 74degrees44' 45" S; 164degrees01' 17" E, 205 m a.s.l) are presented. The initial analysis of a thermal profile in a borehole (100.3 m deep) within mountain permafrost at Stelvio (3000 m a.s.l., 46degrees30' 59"N; 10degrees28' 35" E) is also presented. At the alpine site, the active-layer thickness variations (between 193 and 229 cm) relate to both the snow cover and to the air temperature changes. By contrast, at the Antarctic site, there is a strong direct linkage only between air temperature fluctuations and active-layer variations. At the alpine (La Foppa) site, the relationship between climate and active-layer thickness is complicated by thermal offset that is almost negligible at both the Stelvio and Antarctic sites. The permafrost temperature profile at Stelvio site contains a climate signal suitable for paleoclimate reconstruction. The permafrost at this site has a mean annual ground surface temperature (MAGST) of - 1.9degreesC (during 1998/1999), an active layer of about 2.5 in thick and a total thickness of - 200 m. Analysis of the MAGST history, obtained by applying a simple heat conduction one-dimensional model, revealed the occurrence of a cold period from 1820 to 1940 followed by a warming period until 1978. Since the beginning of the 1980s, temperature dropped (less than 2degreesC) until the middle 1990s, when a new period of warming started. All these climatic changes fit well with the glacial fluctuations in the area and with other paleoclimatic information derived from different proxy dat

A permafrost warming in a cooling Antarctica?

The magnitude and even direction of recent Antarctic climate change is still debated because the paucity of long and complete instrumental data records. While along Antarctic Peninsula a strong warming coupled with large retreat of glaciers occurred, in continental Antarctica a cooling was recently detected. Here, the first existing permafrost data set longer than 10 years recorded in continental Antarctica is presented. Since 1997 summer ground surface temperature showed a strong warming trend (0.31\ub0C per year) although the air temperature was almost stable. The summer ground surface temperature increase seemed to be influenced mainly by the increase of the total summer radiation as confirmed also by the increase of the summer thawing degree days. In the same period the active layer exhibited a thickening trend (1 cm per year) comparable with the thickening rates observed in several Arctic locations where air warming occurred. At all the investigated depths permafrost exhibited an increase of mean annual temperature of approximately 0.1\ub0C per year. The dichotomy between active layer thickness and air temperature trends can produce large unexepected and unmodelled impacts on ecosystems and CO2 balance

Relationships between vegetation patterns and periglacial landforms in northwestern Svalbard

We studied the small-scale vegetation pattern in the high Arctic at Ny Angstromlesund to assess if the plant distribution was related to periglacial landforms. The whole area has been deglaciated for millennia but only a modest part of the area was covered by mature vegetation. The plant cover varied considerably in relation to ground patterning originated by periglacial processes, especially frost heave, frost creep, gelifluction and ice segregation, giving rise to a mosaic of microhabitats sharply differing from each other as regards physical properties and microclimate. The distributional patterns of vascular plants, lichens and bryophytes were primarily affected by complex responses to substrate texture, soil moisture content and substrate disturbance. Since global warming will probably affect both periglacial processes and plant responses to altered habitat conditions, we concluded that long-term monitoring of relationships between landforms and vegetation represents a suitable tool for assessing the impact of global change on arctic regions

Unexpected impacts of climate change on Alpine vegetation

The vegetation in a high alpine site of the European Alps experienced changes in area between 1953 and 2003 as a result of climate change. Shrubs showed rapid expansion rates of 5.6% per decade at altitudes between 2400 m and 2500 m. Above 2500 m, vegetation coverage exhibited unexpected patterns of regression associated with increased precipitation and permafrost degradation. As these changes follow a sharp increase in both summer and annual temperatures after 1980, we suggest that vegetation of the alpine (2400-2800 m) and nival (above 2800 m) belts respond in a fast and flexible way, contradicting previous hypotheses that alpine and nival species appear to have a natural inertia and are able to tolerate an increase of 1-2 degrees C in mean air temperature

Salix shrub encroachment along a 1000 m elevation gradient triggers a major ecosystem change in the European Alps

Shrub encroachment, a globally recognized response to climate warming, usually involves late successional species in mountain environments, without alteration to climax communities. We show that a major ecosystem change is occurring in the European Alps across a 1000 m elevation gradient, with pioneer hygrophilous Salix shrubs, previously typical of riparian forests, wetlands and avalanche ravines, encroaching into the climax communities of subalpine and alpine belts shrublands and grasslands, as well as snowbeds, pioneer vegetation and barren grounds in the nival belt. We analyzed Salix recruitment through dendrochronological methods, and assessed its relationships with climate and atmospheric CO2 concentration. The dendrochronological data indicated that Salix encroachment commenced in the 1950s (based on the age of the oldest Salix individuals, recruited in 1957), and that it was correlated with increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration, spring warming and snow cover decrease. Hygrophilous Salix shrubs are expanding their distribution both through range filling and upwards migration, likely achieving competitive replacement of species of subalpine and alpine climax communities. They benefit from climate warming and CO2 fertilization and are not sensitive to spring frost damage and soil limitations, being observed across a gradient of soil conditions from loose glacial sediments in recently deglaciated areas (where soils had not had sufficient time to develop) to mature soils such as podzols (when colonizing late successional subalpine shrublands). Salix encroachment may trigger ecosystem and landscape transformations, promoting the development of forests that replace pre-existing subalpine shrublands, and of open woodlands invading alpine grasslands and snowbeds, making the alpine environment similar to sub-Arctic and Arctic areas. This results in a new threat to the conservation of the plant species, communities and landscapes typical of the alpine biota, as mountain ranges such as the Alps provide limited opportunities for upward migration and range-shift

ACCELERATING CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON ALPINE GLACIER FOREFIELD ECOSYSTEMS IN THE EUROPEAN ALPS

In the European Alps the increase in air temperature was more than twice the increase in global mean temperature over the last 50 years. The abiotic ( glacial) and the biotic components ( plants and vegetation) of the mountain environment are showing ample evidence of climate change impacts. In the Alps most small glaciers (80% of total glacial coverage and an important contribution to water resources) could disappear in the next decades. Recently climate change was demonstrated to affect higher levels of ecological systems, with vegetation exhibiting surface area changes, indicating that alpine and nival vegetation may be able to respond in a fast and flexible way in response to 1-2 degrees C warming. We analyzed the glacier evolution ( terminus fluctuations, mass balances, surface area variations), local climate, and vegetation succession on the forefield of Sforzellina Glacier ( Upper Valtellina, central Italian Alps) over the past three decades. We aimed to quantify the impacts of climate change on coupled biotic and abiotic components of high alpine ecosystems, to verify if an acceleration was occurring on them during the last decade (i.e., 1996-2006) and to assess whether new specific strategies were adopted for plant colonization and development. All the glaciological data indicate that a glacial retreat and shrinkage occurred and was much stronger after 2002 than during the last 35 years. Vegetation started to colonize surfaces deglaciated for only one year, with a rate at least four times greater than that reported in the literature for the establishment of scattered individuals and about two times greater for the well-established discontinuous early-successional community. The colonization strategy changed: the first colonizers are early-successional, scree slopes, and perennial clonal species with high phenotypic plasticity rather than pioneer and snowbed species. This impressive acceleration coincided with only slight local summer warming ( approximately +0.5 degrees C) and a poorly documented local decrease in the snow cover depth and duration. Are we facing accelerated ecological responses to climatic changes and/or did we go beyond a threshold over which major ecosystem changes may occur in response to even minor climatic variations?

The spatio-temporal variability of frost blisters in a perennial frozen lake along the antarctic coast as indicator of the groundwater supply

Remote sensing, and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in particular, can be a valid tool for assessing the dynamics of cryotic features as frost blisters and to monitor the surface changes and the sublimation rates on perennially frozen lakes that host important ecosystems. In this paper, through the use of these remote sensing techniques, we aim to understand the type of groundwater supply of an Antarctic perennial frozen lake that encompasses two frost blisters (M1 and M2) through the temporal analysis of the features\u2019 elevation changes (frost blisters and lake ice level). The frozen lake is located at Boulder Clay (northern Victoria Land, Antarctica). We relied on several photogrammetric models, past satellite images and ground pictures to conduct differencing of digital elevation models, areal variations and pixel counting. In addition, in situ measurements of the ice sublimation or snow accumulation were carried out. The two frost blisters showed different elevation trends with M1 higher in the past (1996\u20132004) than recently (2014\u20132019), while M2 showed an opposite trend, similarly to the ice level. Indeed, the linear regression between M2 elevation changes and the ice level variation was statistically significant, as well as with the annual thawing degree days, while M1 did not show significant results. From these results we can infer that the groundwater supply of M1 can be related to a sublake open talik (hydraulic system) as confirmed also by pressurized brines found below M1, during a drilling in summer 2019. For M2 the groundwater flow is still not completely clear although the hydrostatic system seems the easiest explanation as well as for the uplift of the lake ice

Snow cover thickness estimation using radial basis function networks

Abstract. This paper reports an experimental study designed for the in-depth investigation of how the radial basis function network (RBFN) estimates snow cover thickness as a function of climate and topographic parameters. The estimation problem is modeled in terms of both function regression and classification, obtaining continuous and discrete thickness values, respectively. The model is based on a minimal set of climatic and topographic data collected from a limited number of stations located in the Italian Central Alps. Several experiments have been conceived and conducted adopting different evaluation indexes. A comparison analysis was also developed for a quantitative evaluation of the advantages of the RBFN method over to conventional widely used spatial interpolation techniques when dealing with critical situations originated by lack of data and limited n-homogeneously distributed instrumented sites. The RBFN model proved competitive behavior and a valuable tool in critical situations in which conventional techniques suffer from a lack of representative data

Permafrost-based geomorphology of the Mt. Foscagno - Mt. Forcellina ridge (Adda–Inn River basins, Central Italian Alps)

The permafrost-based geomorphological map of the Mt. Foscagno–Mt Forcellina ridge (Central Italian Alps) shows the distribution of permafrost probability (high, medium, low probability, and probable absence) obtained by the application of PERMACLIM (Guglielmin et al., 2003), a GIS-based model integrating Digital Elevation Model (DEM) topographic data and the Climatic DataBase (CDB) available from Automatic Weather Stations (AWS). In addition, the map provides information on the outcropping bedrock, the genesis and grain size of near-surface deposits, and geomorphological features with particular reference to periglacial and glacial landforms. Moreover, the map represents locations and values of ground measurements, Bottom Temperature of winter Snow cover (BTS) and Vertical Electric Soundings (VES), and the Mean Annual Air Temperature (MAAT; Guglielmin et al., 2003)